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Taiwan occupies a pivotal position in the strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific. As tensions escalate between the United States and China, the “Taiwan issue” has become a flashpoint with profound implications for regional and global stability. This paper explores whether a US-China war over Taiwan is plausible by applying bargaining theory to model the strategic interactions between the two powers. By conceptualizing Taiwan as both a symbolic and strategic asset, the paper identifies key thresholds of credibility, commitment, and miscalculation that could push the situation toward conflict or cooperation. Through formal modeling and qualitative analysis, it demonstrates how rational actors, despite preferring peaceful outcomes, may become entrapped in a spiral of escalation due to perceived shifts in power or domestic political pressures. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of strategic decision-making in a fragmented regional order and the conditions under which great-power war becomes more likely.

Classical decision theories such as rational choice and expected utility theory have long provided the foundation for understanding the decision-making processes of states and world leaders. However, these models often struggle to explain inconsistent, context-sensitive, or seemingly irrational choices in international relations (IR). Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) offers an innovative approach to analysing decision-making in IR, capturing the complexity and ambiguity inherent in global politics.

Inspired by quantum mechanics, QDT allows decision-makers to exist in a superposition of preferences, accommodating uncertainty, cognitive biases, and the contextual framing of information. Unlike classical theories, QDT incorporates interference effects, non-commutative decision orders, and entangled preferences, providing deeper insight into phenomena such as policy reversals, strategic ambiguity, and dynamic state interests.

QDT explains anomalies that defy classical predictions, such as sudden shifts in alliances and contradictory diplomatic behaviour. Its interdisciplinary potential can enrich fields like strategic studies, game theory, and behavioural IR. By integrating insights from quantum mechanics, psychology, and decision theory, QDT challenges traditional IR scholarship and enhances our understanding of international decision-making. This new approach suggests pathways for future research and the development of quantum-inspired methodologies to address pressing questions in world politics.

[Abstract to come.]